20. aug. 2006

ER DETTE ET BLIKK INN I FREMTIDEN?

SPIEGEL ONLINE hadde nylig en artikkel som etter mitt syn godt oppsummerer den siste tids utvikling på den geopolitiske arena om energi, og hva som kan komme til å skje i den nære fremtid.

Artikkelen har en rekke interaktive funksjoner som gjør teksten mer innholdsrik.
Den gjør også referanser til NEP (National Energy Policy) som ble gjort offentlig av president Bush i mai 2001.

Fra artikkelen:

The good news is that it's improbable, despite all the dangers and bottlenecks, that fossil fuels will become the much cited unaffordable "black gold" overnight, or that they will even no longer be available in sufficient quantities. Besides, human inventiveness has always been able to discover or invent new energy sources.
The bad news is that the age of cheap oil and natural gas is definitely over. At the very latest, the next generation will be bitterly punished for our reckless overconsumption of fossil fuels.
Renewable energies and energy efficiency together won't be enough to cover the shortfall, either. In the longterm, even if renewable resources like solar power, wind power and biomass -- which are urgently needed -- are added into the energy mix with oil, natural gas, coal and nuclear energy, they will still only be able to cover one-quarter of the energy needs ofindustrialized nations. That's the best-case scenario.


At menneskelig innovasjon alltid har kunnet oppdage eller finne nye energi kilder!!!
Vel fortsatt gjelder termodynamikkens lover som sier at energi kun kan høstes eller omformes fra en form til en annen.

Men det er lov å håpe, men ikke baser fremtiden på at det vil skje….enda.


A scenario for the future
The world in January 2012: More than a decade has passed since the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. The US had to exit Baghdad a long time ago. Iraq is being governed by a Shiite dictator following an Iraq war that the US lost in embarrassment.
Iran has become a nuclear power. And the royal family has just been toppled in Saudia Arabia -- the fanatics who organized the putsch are calling the fundamentalist state "Islamajah."
Kuwait and the Gulf emirates still take a sympathetic stance towards the West, and at least some of the petroleum continues to be shipped. But the terrorist advocates of global jihad are already working to devastate the embassies and cultural centers of the US and the EU -- from Doha in Qatar to Manama in Bahrein -- with acts of violence.
Then intelligence experts in London and Washington discover that the People's Republic of China is constructing a secret missile facility in the desert of the former Saudi kingdom. Beijing is obviously out to secure access to the oil fields and refineries for itself. The hawks in Washington have been waiting for just this type of escalation. They plan to use the ultimate weapon in order to decide the struggle for the world's most important resource reserves.

It's 2012 and the world is heading for nuclear war.

Ikke det mest optimistiske jeg har sett, men det er tross alt fra........ SPIEGEL

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